Strait of Hormuz

When benchmark supply increases and physical delivery routes diverge, the gap between paper and physical becomes the real position.

The Hormuz near-closure has given Iraq a two-month window to reroute crude through Turkey. The outcome will reprice Northern Iraqi differentials and trigger force majeure clauses across the region.

When a UN agency puts a specific chokepoint and a six-to-twelve month timeline in the same sentence, the risk has moved from geopolitical to operational.

When a state controls the threat and sells the insurance, that is not a market. It is a toll.